This mess we’re in? Or how simulation and prediction will advance the social sciences

Demography and sociology have produced a sophisticated body of work on fertility outcomes, i.e., whether, why, and when people have children. Such research has uncovered many characteristics underlying fertility. Unfortunately, traditional ways of statistical analyses means that results are difficult to compare across studies and that we have little understanding on the (relative) importance of these characteristics. In light of the credibility crisis that has taken hold of many other fields and disciplines, one might similarly worry about the robustness of findings in demography and sociology. In this talk I will argue and show that a focus on predictive ability and on microsimulation will advance fertility research and make it more reliable.

Summary

     The Data Science Insitute, Hasselt University

     Hasselt, Belgium

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Description

Demography and sociology have produced a sophisticated body of work on fertility outcomes, i.e., whether, why, and when people have children. Such research has uncovered many characteristics underlying fertility. Unfortunately, traditional ways of statistical analyses means that results are difficult to compare across studies and that we have little understanding on the (relative) importance of these characteristics. In light of the credibility crisis that has taken hold of many other fields and disciplines, one might similarly worry about the robustness of findings in demography and sociology. In this talk I will argue and show that a focus on predictive ability and on microsimulation will advance fertility research and make it more reliable.